Depleted Munster may need a rivalry-fueled miracle against Leinster, but that’s what old foes are for

As ever at this early staging post, it’s almost as if nothing has mattered until now. Some fixtures stand out more than others and none more than this one. Its enduring appeal seemingly knows no bounds and 16 seasons on from a then world record attendance for a ‘club game’ in that seismic Heineken Cup semi-final, they return to Croke Park to break yet more new ground, in every sense.
In becoming the 54th venue in the competition’s history, this evening’s near 81,000 Croke Park sell-out will be the biggest attendance in the 23-year history of the URC and all its iterations.
It’s a once-in-a-generation fixture and the pity is that both sides are not nearer to full strength. This must be a particular regret for some of the more experienced absentees. After all, that 2009 mother of all semi-finals came too soon for Peter O’Mahony, as did Ireland’s tenancy in Croke Park from 2007 to 2010. For O’Mahony and others, this actually would have been a once-in-a-lifetime game.
All told, 16 of Munster’s senior squad are injured, leaving them particularly thin in the outside three and at prop. Even so, having been released from the Emerging Ireland tour, Seán O’Brien starts on the wing, as does the fit-again Alex Nankivell in midfield. In the absence of Oli Jager, Stephen Archer returns while Gavin Coombes is reinstated to his rightful position at number eight, with Jack O’Donoghue shifting to blindside.
Tom Ahern and Ruadhán Quinn also return from injury to bolster a bench featuring 22-year-old Academy prop Kieran Ryan, thereby in line for his fourth cap.
Leinster are not without their injury woes, especially in the back three, where Jimmy O’Brien has joined Tommy O’Brien and Jordan Larmour on the casualty list. Likewise at hooker, where Rónan Kelleher’s minor operation on his ankle has compounded Dan Sheehan’s absence, most likely for Ireland’s Autumn Nations Series as well.
As a consequence Liam Turner, a skilful and clever midfielder, is pressed into service on the right wing while the other two enforced changes see Lee Barron start at hooker and James Ryan recalled alongside RG Snyman.
Last season’s Irish Under-20 hooker Gus McCarthy, who might have wondered how much rugby he would experience this season above UCD in the AIL, is thus named on the bench after starting Leinster’s first two games and playing in two Emerging Ireland tour matches before his release.
Cian Healy, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath and Harry Byrne also return to a bench featuring the latter’s brother Ross.
Leinster still go into this game with 13 internationals in their starting XV, and six more on the bench. This includes what would be considered nine or 10 Irish first-choices as well as their double World Cup winner Snyman.
Munster do have 11 internationals in their XV, including their own Springbok World Cup winner Jean Kleyn, along with another couple on the bench, albeit only three would be considered Irish first-choices.
Still, that usually gives the men in red more of a point to prove and one of the reasons for this fixture’s enduring appeal is the many subplots, and once again they abound.
Most obviously, there’s the incumbent, Jack Crowley, against the match-winner in Durban, Ciarán Frawley. But there’s also James Lowe v Calvin Nash, Jamison Gibson-Park v Craig Casey and James Ryan v Tadhg Beirne, and last but not least, Snyman against Kleyn, compadres in the Boks’ Bomb Squad. And no less than the feisty Casey, John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes and the rest will all be additionally motivated by their matchups.
Nor is Snyman breaking new ground in moving between Munster and Leinster. Jacques Nienaber and Tyler Bleyendaal have taken a similar route, while Denis Leamy has returned in the opposite direction. Munster captain Beirne, along with Jeremy Loughman, Jager and Tom Farrell all started their rugby journeys in Leinster.
Leo Cullen yesterday noted that whereas Munster’s coaching ticket are “settled”, Nienaber and Bleyendaal were not on board in last season’s corresponding fixture at the Aviva.
Munster threw down the gauntlet that evening with some early Simon Zebo magic in that wonderful try finished off by Casey. Alas, Zebo has retired, and with Snyman and Joey Carbery moving on, the pity is they are missing the X-factor of new signing Thaakir Abrahams.
Munster also beat Leinster in the semi-finals two seasons ago with that late pitch-length drive which culminated in Crowley’s drop goal, a badly needed fillip for this rivalry as otherwise Leinster have won 12 of the last 13 URC meetings.
This was also a reminder that Munster often add up to more than the sum of their parts, yet Leinster look in ruder health and are 14-point favourites. Their scrum appears more potent and perhaps crucially, the carrying of Caelan Doris, imperious on his return last week, Jack Conan, Snyman, Lowe and co can help generate quicker possession.
Either way, this one rarely does dull.
LEINSTER: Hugo Keenan; Liam Turner, Garry Ringrose, Jamie Osborne, James Lowe; Ciarán Frawley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Lee Barron, Tadhg Furlong; RG Snyman, James Ryan; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Gus McCarthy, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, Ryan Baird, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Harry Byrne.
MUNSTER: Mike Haley; Calvin Nash, Tom Farrell, Alex Nankivell, Sean O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey; Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, Stephen Archer; Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne (capt); Jack O’Donoghue, John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes.
Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Kevin Ryan, John Ryan, Tom Ahern, Ruadhán Quinn, Conor Murray, Tony Butler, Shay McCarthy.
Referee: Chris Busby (IRFU).
Head-to-head (URC): Played 50, Leinster 34 wins, Munster 16 wins.
Last five meetings: (2022-23) Leinster 27 Munster 13; Munster 19 Leinster 20; (semi-final) Leinster 15 Munster 16. (2023-24) Leinster 21 Munster 16; Munster 3 Leinster 9.
Results so far: Leinster – W 33-31 v Edinburgh (a); W 34-6 v Dragons (h); W 35-5 v Benetton (a). Munster – W 35-33 v Connacht (h); L 33-42 v Zebre Parma (a); W 23-0 v Ospreys (h).
Betting: 1-10 Leinster, 25-1 Draw, 13-2 Munster. Handicap odds (Munster +14 points) 10-11 Leinster, 20-1 Draw, 10-11 Munster.
Forecast: Leinster to win.